The change in the version of B61 deployed in Europe provides a chance to reassess the number of weapons deployed at each base. Since the weapons are moved in batches, the batch is used here as the fundamental unit for counting the weapons.
Since the replacement program is at, or near, its end, we can count the number of batches of weapons brought into each base, and use that figure to represent the number of weapons at the base at the end of deployment.
Similarly, we can count the number of batches moved out, and use this figure to represent the number of weapons present on each base before the replacement program began.
Using a guide figure of eight weapons per batch, the calculated number of weapons is shown in parentheses (). The dates in the leftmost column are the start dates of each operation for movement of weapons during the period under consideration. For each operation, figures under each base show the number of batches taken out (-) and brought in (+).
| base: | Aviano | Büchel | Ghedi | Incirlik | Kleine Brogel | Lakeneath | Volkel | total | |||||||
| before: | 3 (24) | 1 (8) | 1 (8) | 2 (16) | 1 (8) | 0 (0) | 1 (8) | 9 (72) | |||||||
| 2022-12-01 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-03-16 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 |
| 2023-06-04 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2023-11-05 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-05-25 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2024-06-21 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 2024-10-11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -2 | +1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 2025-07-15 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | +1 | 0 | 0 | +1 |
| change: | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | +1 | 0 | -1 | |||||||
| after: | 2 (16) | 1 (8) | 1 (8) | 1 (8) | 1 (8) | 1 (8) | 1 (8) | 8 (64) | |||||||
Immediately we notice that the total number of deployed weapons appears to have dropped: nine batches were moved out of Europe, while eight have been moved in. In the process of doing this, the number of weapons at both Aviano and Incirlik appears to have decreased, partially offset by the activation of Lakenheath.
The figure of eight weapons per batch used above results in some variation from other estimates of weapon numbers before the B61-12 deployment. Notably, it gives somewhat lower figures for bases like Volkel and Kleine Brogel, while the figure for Aviano is higher than had previously been estimated.
As the number of batches removed from Europe exceeds the number delivered, it is likely that the deployment is not yet complete. Given that the capacity at RAF Lakeneath is greater than at any of the other active bases, that base is the likely destination of the outstanding batch. This would strongly signal the shift in emphasis of the NATO nuclear weapon programme towards the north of Europe.